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Apr13
どっちみちダブル?
国会は雨。春の好天は3日続かないね。きょうのお天気は、参院選の前哨戦、衆議院北海道5区の補選の現状を表しているかのよう。
自民・和田義明さんと野党統一候補・池田真紀さんの一騎打ち。手元にある某政党の最新調査によれば、38.6%対35.9%と拮抗。
去年暮れの段階では大差がついていたのに逆転。
告示されたあとだからどっちがどうとは書けないけど今月17日に安倍総理が応援に入るかどうかが分水嶺。
ただ、今回の選挙の勝敗が解散総選挙の判断に影響を与えるというのは、半分正しく、もう半分は正しくない。どっちに転んでも夏は衆参W選挙の公算が大だから。
和田さんが勝てば安倍さんは勢いづく。
民共のタッグがきちんと組まれる前に解散に打って出て憲法改正に必要な勢力確保に走るはず。
池田さんが勝てば政権には衝撃が走るものの参院自民から「Wじゃないと勝てない」という声が強まる。よって今夏は衆参W選挙になるというわけ。
和田陣営には安倍さんの側近、下村さんがテコ入れに入ってる。色々分析すると、選挙特番はWに備え準備したほうがいいな。(候補者写真:朝日新聞)