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May17
台湾有事のシナリオ
国際情勢で私の最大の関心が台湾問題。去年1月、蔡英文総統が再選されて以降、中国の習近平指導部は武力を行使してでも統一する方針だからね。
習氏の狙いは最高権力者であり続けることと中華民族の偉大なる復興。香港の次に欲しいのが台湾だ。
台湾有事に至るシナリオや日米の対処法について書いているのがこの原稿。40頁分まで書いた。
きょうは元陸自東部方面総監の渡部悦和氏の取材。戦いはハイブリッド戦になるとの指摘が興味深かった。
習氏が2021年の共産党100年、2027年の軍創設100年を節目にしている話も。
その先には2049年の建国100年もある。この話はきのう原稿に書いたばかり。
帰ったらまた続きを書こうと思いながら珍しく社外でランチ。「嫁に隠れて寿司を食う」だ。来週は河野克俊前統合幕僚長に会いに行くので楽しみ。